While The Falcon may have set sail for London in 2013, that does not mean the annual tradition that is The Falcon's Tour de France Guide will come to a close. Instead, with The Falcon closer to the action than ever, the Guide celebrates its 5th annivesary as Le Tour celebrates not only its 100th edition, but its first in what can only be described as the post Armstrong era.
Despite Lancegate - the sport hasn't changed, and the field is still riddled with more questionable characters than a James Bond movie. Former drug cheats, Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverede line up, along with teen hearth-throb and world-famous quitter Andy Schleck. While the red hot favourite is Chris Froome, whose Black Armada last year produced a display of dominance not seen since the heady days of US Postal (and apparently those guys may have had a little extra assistance). And given recent relevations in the AFL, as a long suffering cycling fan I think we need to lay our cards on the table and face the facts that in all likelyhood - THE MAJORITY OF THE WORLDS ATHELETES ARE ON THE GEAR. So pick your drug cheat of choice and cheer them all the way around France. Look at it this way, if you gave me a month long program of EPO would I be smashing my way across the heady heights of the Alps - I don't think so (future bank run experiments pending).
Basically, this Tour comes down to one thing. Chris Froome must not win! With the Lions mauling the Wallabies, Andy Murray seemingly steamrolling his way to a Wimbledon triumph, and the Ashes basically already locked back up in the MCC long room, we cannot have the Brits complete the clean sweep. Personally, while I think Froome is a quality rider, he has nowhere near the ability of Contador - and if the Spaniard can get together for the next three weeks he will beat him. Sadly the Yellow jersey looks a two horse race - with the next group of favourites either pure climbers who can't time trial (Rodriquez, Quintana), domestiques of Froome (Porte), or past it (Evans, Valverde). Tejay Van Garderen is probably the great white (clean) hope, but I just don't think he has the punch to get over the line against some of his more illustrious rivals here.
The more exciting battle will probably be for the Green Jersey - with one of the all time great sprinting line ups gracing the Tour for its 100th edition - Cavendish, Sagan, Greipel, Goss, Kittel, Degenkolb are all here in what looks to be the strongest green jersey competition in year. I think the jersey will play out pretty much as it did last year - Cavendish will win more stages but Sagan will win the title. Goss will probably get plenty of top 5's without ever getting near a win.
The polka-dot-jersey (mountains) and White Jersey (young rider) are usually complete lotteries and this year is no different, although you would think it would take a fair effort to dislodge Tee Jay from the White Jersey. Thomas Voeckler seems to have put his hand up again for the mountains jersey and he would be a popular winner as always.
So sit back, relax and enjoy what is sure to be an enigmatc and unpredictable 100th edition of Le Tour. Hopefully there is enough tactical nous from the other team managers to not let the Sky Death Star run a procession this year. If Froome falters at any stage, it will be game on for the Yellow Jersey and we may get one of the most exciting races in years. Let's hope that's the case.
